Prediction certainty is enhanced by modifying behavior, not just observing it.

Evidence

These interventions are designed to enhance certainty by doing things: they nudge, tune, herd, manipulate, and modify behavior in specific directions by executing actions as subtle as inserting a specific phrase into your Facebook news feed, timing the appearance of a BUY button on your phone, or shutting down your car engine when an insurance payment is late. — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 625

Categorization

• XREF: The shift from predicting to shaping behavior recurs in discussions of social media feeds and algorithmic recommendation systems in the reader’s platform/surveillance corpus. — connects to: Modified behavior yields the most predictive behavioral surplus of all — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 929; Guaranteed prediction products require causal knowledge gained through experiments — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 931
• CANDY: The three escalating examples — a feed phrase, a button timing, an engine shutoff — are a compact, tweetable ladder of intervention intimacy.

Broader Connections

• Modified behavior yields the most predictive behavioral surplus of all #corroborates (0.85) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 929
• Guaranteed prediction products require causal knowledge gained through experiments #expands (0.75) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 931