Path-dependent processes are contingent, so their outcomes cannot be predicted in advance.

Evidence

It is, however, important to realize that in the nonlinear logic of path dependence, irrespective of whether the initial actions are big or small, they can never be considered causal determinants. A determined process would follow a prescribed course of events right from the beginning, as is the case with linear cause-and-effect laws. Opposed to that, the very point of early path developments is that they are contingent in character. Moreover, their outcomes are unforeseeable consequences of purposeful action (Merton, 1936). The outcome cannot be known unless the process has been formed. — Jörg Sydow, Georg Schreyögg, and Jochen Koch, Organizational Path Dependence, 37

Categorization

• DEFINE: Clarifies path dependence as nonlinear contingency rather than linear cause-and-effect, a key conceptual distinction for the whole theory.
• XREF: Connects to Taleb’s black swan and complex-systems thinking on unpredictable outcomes of purposeful acts.