Parole prediction is possible only as aggregate statistics, not certainty
Evidence
“It would be entirely feasible and should be helpful to the Parole Board,” he says, “to devise a summary sheet for each man about to be paroled in order for its members to tell at a glance the violation rate for each significant factor… . The prediction would not be absolute in any given case, but, according to the law of averages, would apply to any considerable number of cases.” — Brian Christian, The Alignment Problem, 245
Categorization
- DEFINE: Articulates the foundational statistical distinction between aggregate prediction and individual certainty that underlies all risk assessment.
- corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Brian Christian, The Alignment Problem, 245
- XREF: connects to: Untested risk models can detain people on factors having no real predictive value — Brian Christian, The Alignment Problem, 269; Parole outcomes vary predictably by measurable background factors — Brian Christian, The Alignment Problem, 244; Statistical prediction of parole success outperforms subjective judicial decisions
Related
- Parole outcomes vary predictably by measurable background factors (similarity 0.83)
- Statistical prediction of parole success outperforms subjective judicial decisions (similarity 0.83)
- Science only recently began predicting parolee behavior after release (similarity 0.82)