No reliable predictive model exists for whether major reforms will entrench

Evidence

Confronted with the question whether major policy reforms like the Affordable Care Act or Dodd-Frank are likely to become entrenched, social scientists can do little more than point to a number of possibly relevant variables. Case studies suggest that subtle, contextual differences can often be determinative. — Daryl Levinson and Benjamin I. Sachs, Political Entrenchment and Public Law, 429

Categorization

• QUESTION: The claim that subtle contextual detail, not general law, determines durability is directly relevant to the reader’s case-study method for ideology stickiness.
• XREF: connects to: Entrenchment often arises from unintended path-dependent feedback, not strategic design — Daryl Levinson and Benjamin I. Sachs, Political Entrenchment and Public Law, 492; Epochal economic conditions limit but never determine the detailed form of political crises — Hall, Stuart, Essential Essays, Volume 1, 513; Rational cost-benefit models fail to predict decisions about war and revolution — Scott Atran, The Devoted Actor: Unconditional…, 29 (+3 more)

Broader Connections

• Post-Cold War instability is real but lacks predictive structure #corroborates (0.80)
• Epochal economic conditions limit but never determine the detailed form of political crises #expands (0.75) — Hall, Stuart, Essential Essays, Volume 1, 513
• Rational cost-benefit models fail to predict decisions about war and revolution #corroborates (0.75) — Scott Atran, The Devoted Actor, 29
• Social reforms can backfire by raising expectations beyond what capitalism can deliver #complicates (0.73) — Clara E. Mattei, The Capital Order, 320
• No government has a fully determinate plan for every foreseeable contingency #corroborates (0.72) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 457