Lily pads self-reproduce and trigger base races that heighten conflict risk.

Evidence

Finally, a proliferation of lily pads only accelerates the militarization of large swaths of the globe. Like real lily pads, which are actually aquatic weeds, bases have a way of reproducing uncontrollably. Bases can beget bases and spur “base races” with other nations, heightening military tensions and discouraging diplomatic solutions to conflicts. In Africa, where China has provided some military aid and weaponry, U.S. lily pads may encourage China to build lily pads of its own. This could increase regional tensions and the danger of a clash between the two powers or their proxies. If the proliferation of lily pads continues, the United States runs an increasing risk of being drawn into new conflicts and new wars. — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1020

Categorization

Category: Causal Relationships

• XREF: The ‘base race’ dynamic parallels security dilemma theory and cold-war arms race logics familiar from IR literature.

Related

• Lily pads serve as back doors for political and economic influence. (similarity 0.89)
• Forward-based lily pads near rival borders risk provoking reciprocal responses and blowback. (similarity 0.89)
• Lily pads quietly expand US military reach into new conflict zones. (similarity 0.87)
• Lily pads provide redundancy so base denial by one host can be bypassed (similarity 0.84)
• Lily pad networks reproduce full military capacity while avoiding bases’ visible political costs. (similarity 0.83)
• U.S. lily pads turn allied militaries into proxy adjuncts that do the fighting (similarity 0.82)
• Bases near rival borders provoke arms races and discourage diplomacy (similarity 0.82)
• The forward strategy transformed the US from opposing standing armies to global military patrol. (similarity 0.82)
• Lily pad bases cluster in weak states with lax environmental laws and lower costs. (similarity 0.82)
• Lily pads grant the U.S. Subic-era access without the political costs of large garrisons (similarity 0.81)
• New U.S. bases near rivals may create the very threats they aim to counter. (similarity 0.81)
• Many dispersed bases give the US wartime redundancy and lower eviction costs. (similarity 0.80)
• Small lily pad bases routinely expand into behemoth installations. (similarity 0.80)
• Scattered small bases force collaboration with despotic regimes and enable coups. (similarity 0.79)
• Lily pad base rhetoric carries racialized frontier and civilizing overtones. (similarity 0.79)

Broader Connections

• Forward-based lily pads near rival borders risk provoking reciprocal responses and blowback. #expands (0.80) — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1021