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🪵 The Threshold

Failed predictions often intensify believers' proselytizing rather than ending their faith

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tagsja-picks, xref, question, causal_relationships, trade, singleton, category/causal-relationships
aliases@fisher_k-punk_2018, loc. 1810

3 min read

Failed predictions often intensify believers’ proselytizing rather than ending their faith

Evidence

Philosophy of science revels in the ways in which it may be rational to discount contrary evidence, but the social psychology of cognitive dissonance reveals just how elastic the concept of rationality can be in social life. Festinger and his colleagues illustrated these lessons in his first book (1956) by reporting in a neutral manner the vicissitudes of a group of Midwesterners they called “The Seekers,” who developed a belief that they would be rescued by flying saucers on a specific date in 1954, prior to a great flood coming to engulf Lake City (a pseudonym). Festinger documents in great detail the hour-by-hour reactions of the Seekers as the date of their rescue came and passed with no spaceships arriving and no flood welling up to swallow Lake City. At first, the Seekers withdrew from representatives of the press seeking to upbraid them for their failed prophecies, but rapidly reversed their stance, welcoming any and all opportunities to expound and elaborate upon their (revised and expanded) faith. A minority of their group did fall away, but Festinger notes they tended to be lukewarm peripheral members of the group. Predominantly, the Seekers never renounced their challenged doctrines. The ringleaders tended to redouble their proselytising, so long as they were able to maintain interaction with a coterie of fellow covenanters. — Mark Fisher (edited by Darren Ambrose), K-Punk, 1810

Categorization

  • XREF: Connects to the social-capital and belief-commitment literature; also a classic corroborating example to Sinclair Lewis / mass-delusion themes and to accounts of doomsday cults elsewhere read. — connects to: Failed prophecies boost proselytizing among those with fellow believers. — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 99; Disconfirmed prophecies get reinterpreted rather than abandoned when believers are invested — Lee McIntyre, Post-Truth, 87; Failed millenarian prophecy redoubles proselytising among core believers — Mark Fisher (edited by Darren Ambrose), K-Punk: The Collected and Unpublished…, 1810 (+4 more)
  • QUESTION: Worth chasing Festinger’s ‘Seekers’ study for the exact conditions under which disconfirmation strengthens rather than weakens belief (social support, prior commitment, public action).

Broader Connections

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