Failed millenarian prophecy redoubles proselytising among core believers

Evidence

Festinger and his colleagues illustrated these lessons in his first book (1956) by reporting in a neutral manner the vicissitudes of a group of Midwesterners they called “The Seekers,” who developed a belief that they would be rescued by flying saucers on a specific date in 1954, prior to a great flood coming to engulf Lake City (a pseudonym). Festinger documents in great detail the hour-by-hour reactions of the Seekers as the date of their rescue came and passed with no spaceships arriving and no flood welling up to swallow Lake City. At first, the Seekers withdrew from representatives of the press seeking to upbraid them for their failed prophecies, but rapidly reversed their stance, welcoming any and all opportunities to expound and elaborate upon their (revised and expanded) faith. A minority of their group did fall away, but Festinger notes they tended to be lukewarm peripheral members of the group. Predominantly, the Seekers never renounced their challenged doctrines. The ringleaders tended to redouble their proselytising, so long as they were able to maintain interaction with a coterie of fellow covenanters. — Mark Fisher (edited by Darren Ambrose), K-Punk, 1810

Categorization

• CANDY: The Seekers awaiting flying saucers that never arrive, then evangelising harder, is a perfect elevator anecdote.
• SHARE: Send to anyone interested in cognitive dissonance or millenarian psychology — the Festinger finding is canonically fascinating.
• XREF: connects to: Failed crusades shifted narrative hopes from victory to conversion miracles; Recurring false rumors of enemy conversion fueled repeated Christian crusade hopes; Failed prophecies boost proselytizing among those with fellow believers. — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 99 (+1 more)

Broader Connections

• Failed crusades shifted narrative hopes from victory to conversion miracles #exemplifies (0.85)
• Recurring false rumors of enemy conversion fueled repeated Christian crusade hopes #complicates (0.75)