Divided government and lame-duck presidencies predict Supreme Court confirmation failure

Evidence

The Senate is more likely to reject a nominee if the Senate and presidency are controlled by different parties, or if the president is politically weakened by scandal, unpopular policies, or a forthcoming presidential election. Indeed, the Senate has confirmed 90 percent of nominees for the Supreme Court during the first three years of presidential terms, but less than 67 percent during the final year. The Senate also may reject nominees opposed by powerful interest groups. The influence of these groups has increased during the twentieth century, as the process of confirmation has become more public. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 543

Categorization

• SEED: A data-grounded angle on the political rationality of scheduling a nomination early in a term and the lame-duck presidency phenomenon.
• XREF: connects to: Divided government and partisan payback slash judicial confirmation rates, leaving many vacancies. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 688; Divided government lowers judicial confirmation rates. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 501; Partisan judicial confirmation battles stem from structural features of the appointment process — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 507 (+1 more)

Broader Connections

• Divided government and partisan payback slash judicial confirmation rates, leaving many vacancies. #corroborates (0.95) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 688