Deterrence can be built as graduated probabilistic trip wires rather than a single switch.

Evidence

What we have is a graduated series of trip wires, each attached to a chance mechanism, with the daily probability of detonation increasing as the enemy moves from wire to wire. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 429

Categorization

  • DEFINE: Introduces the ‘graduated trip wire’ as a distinct deterrence concept, refining the earlier all-or-nothing analogy.
  • XREF: connects to: Deterrence operates on graduated probability, not a binary trip-wire logic — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 460

Broader Connections