Conspiracy, like speculation, offers both orienting narrative and betting opportunity under uncertainty.

Evidence

My contention, however, is that even the most “maximalist” and “pathological” practices of speculation embody a political dynamic that should not be dismissed altogether. If, as we have seen, speculation is predicated on the sociality of trading interdependencies and reciprocal obligations, conspiracy has a similar capacity to satisfy societies’ yearnings for connection. And as with all types of speculation, it encompasses both an insurance (in the form of orienting myths that offer a sense of narrative to otherwise baffling and destabilizing events) and a wager (that seeks to yield returns from such destabilizing events). — Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, Speculative Communities, 331

Categorization

• DEFINE: Directly enriches the reader’s core task of defining homo speculans by parsing speculation into insurance-plus-wager components that conspiracy also carries.
• ADDENDUM: The insurance-versus-wager parsing of both speculation and conspiracy connects to the reader’s sacrifice article, where ritual acts similarly straddle security-seeking and risk-taking.
• SEED: Angle: reframing conspiracy belief not as irrationality but as a mode of betting on volatility under uncertainty — same training as speculative markets.
• XREF: connects to: Conspiracy thinking parallels speculation by providing narrative insurance and wagers on destabilizing events. — Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, Speculative Communities: Living with…, 510