Assessing conspiracist claims requires dual suspension of disbelief and suspicion

Evidence

There are no truth-in-advertising labels that tell us which conspiracist claims are warranted. There are no bright lines. Some conspiracy theories are true, and some are false, and, increasingly, many are not theories at all. Confronted with a conspiracist claim, the question is, on one hand, whether we can set aside disbelief in the possibility of a conspiracy and entertain the charge and, on the other hand, whether we can set aside preconceived notions that agents are always out there, plotting with malignant intent. The question is how we assemble facts and draw inferences from those facts. When considering the possibility of conspiracy, do we consider contrary evidence and argument? Can we hold in mind facts that are in tension with one another? — Russell Muirhead and Nancy L. Rosenblum, A Lot of People Are Saying, 40

If the Mueller probe finds no prosecutable evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, would we say that the special counsel has shown himself to be party to a right-wing conspiracy? Or would we be open to the possibility that the Justice Department investigated the matter with integrity and did not find sufficient grounds to prosecute? Assessing conspiracist claims requires skepticism and common sense—both democratic virtues. — Russell Muirhead and Nancy L. Rosenblum, A Lot of People Are Saying, 41

Categorization

• DEEPTHINKING: The epistemological discipline named here — holding two opposing priors in tension simultaneously — is genuinely hard and worth sitting with.
• APHORISMS: Framed as an actually usable epistemic discipline: doubt that conspiracies exist while doubting they don’t.
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Russell Muirhead and Nancy L. Rosenblum, A Lot of People Are Saying: The New…, 40; Russell Muirhead and Nancy L. Rosenblum, A Lot of People Are Saying: The New…, 41
• XREF: connects to: Wholesome skepticism differs fundamentally from conspiracism; Acknowledging disorientation is the first step toward overcoming it.; Specific claims are subordinate to a superordinate conspiracy narrative — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 195 (+6 more)

Broader Connections

• Conspiracy functions as an alternative epistemology when interpretation has no ground truth #expands (0.85) — , The Braided Reading EPUB, 105
• The layered structure of belief makes totalitarian lies foolproof against exposure #qualifies (0.80)