Aggregated past innovations trap groups on locally optimal yet suboptimal trajectories

Evidence

Needham (1988) has documented the parallel evolution of boats in Asia and Europe. Chinese junks and European sailing ships show a number of major differences, despite the similar goals of their builders, which can be traced backward through a gradual accumulation of innovations, with each new innovation built on top of previous innovations. For example, early European boats used a heavy keel as the main structural support, whereas the early Chinese solved this problem by using flat-bottomed rafts reinforced with cross-wise ribs or bulkheads. This early difference in how boat builders solved the problem of structural integrity led these groups to increasingly diverge, leading them up different adaptive peaks. Later, when European and Chinese sailors came into close and repeated contact, neither group adopted the hull design of the other. Although as many believe, the Chinese design was superior (at a higher adaptive peak), European ship builders could not readily adopt these designs because they already relied on an immense amount of specialized construction knowledge, specific carpentry skills, and reliable trade networks for particular raw materials (what economists called network externalities). Similarly, European sailors had benefited from centuries of learning sailing skills and maritime knowledge that had been honed and time-tested for this particular type of craft. Switching to a Chinese design surely would have brought increased risk, inefficiency and a slow leaning curve. Each group had stabilized along a particular evolutionary trajectory, and, consequently, any individuals deviating from their groups’ trajectory would incur costs. — Joe Henrich and Robert Boyd, The Evolution of Conformist…, 114

Categorization

• ADDENDUM: Connects to the mechanics of why radical redesigns almost never displace entrenched technology — echoes the Osborne/tamarisk grafting metaphor of path-dependence from earlier work, though this is economic/myopic-adoption path dependence.
• XREF: Network externalities and adaptive peaks echo Arthur’s increasing-returns economics and the general myopic-loss-of-adaptive-peaks literature that Henrich later popularizes. — connects to: Optimization models predict steady states but carry no historical dimension — Joe Henrich and Robert Boyd, The Evolution of Conformist…, 105; Agglomeration economies convert initially random location choices into locked-in paths — Georg Schreyögg and Jörg Sydow, The Hidden Dynamics of Path Dependence:…, 814; Reward systems that favor incremental improvement progressively starve organizations of exploration — Jörg Sydow, Georg Schreyögg, and Jochen Koch, Organizational Path Dependence: Opening…, 87

Broader Connections

• Agglomeration economies convert initially random location choices into locked-in paths #exemplifies (0.92) — Georg Schreyögg and Jörg Sydow, The Hidden Dynamics of Path Dependence, 814
• Reward systems that favor incremental improvement progressively starve organizations of exploration #expands (0.85) — Jörg Sydow, Georg Schreyögg, and Jochen Koch, Organizational Path Dependence, 87