A single justice’s defection can flip a Supreme Court decision

Evidence

In a closely divided court, defection by a single justice can produce a new majority and, with it, a different decision. According to one study of a 10-year period, the justices’ final votes differed from those in conference 9 percent of the time. In most instances, however, the changes served to increase the size of the Court majority rather than to create a new majority, because justices merely refrained from dissenting. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 950

Categorization

• SEED: The 9 percent vote-change figure and the pattern of refraining from dissent could anchor an essay on the gap between conference and final Court voting.
• XREF: connects to: A single senator’s party defection can shift control of judicial confirmations. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 503; A justice’s rulings can depart radically from what the appointing president expected — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 752; Judicial independence lets appointed justices shed partisanship and change their views — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 539 (+2 more)

Broader Connections

• A justice’s rulings can depart radically from what the appointing president expected #expands (0.78) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 752
• Judicial independence lets appointed justices shed partisanship and change their views #corroborates (0.74) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 539
• Fragmented Supreme Court majorities complicate lower courts’ interpretation of rulings #qualifies (0.70) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1570