Supreme Court justices change their conference votes nine percent of the time

Evidence

The opinion-writing phase provides an opportunity for further reflection, and justices may change their votes after reading the draft opinions. Indeed, on occasion justices assigned to write the opinion of the Court have reported back that additional research had led them to change their votes. In a closely divided court, defection by a single justice can produce a new majority and, with it, a different decision. According to a 10-year study, the justices’ final votes differed from those in conference 9 percent of the time. In most instances, however, the changes served to increase the size of the Court majority rather than to create a new majority, as justices merely refrained from dissenting. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1571

Categorization

• QUESTION: What determines whether post-conference vote changes create new majorities versus merely enlarging old ones? The conditions favoring defection seem undertheorized here.
• XREF: connects to: Conference discussion rarely changes a justice’s vote because format discourages interchange — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1562; Collegiality only marginally shifts judges’ settled votes — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1338; Supreme Court conference discussions rarely change justices’ votes. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 941 (+1 more)

Broader Connections

• Collegiality only marginally shifts judges’ settled votes #corroborates (0.85) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1338