Western diplomats misread Siad Barre as a non-coup-minded safety valve

Evidence

It appears that everyone underestimated Barre and the possibility of a coup. “[Barre] himself is not at all coup-minded and views his role as a kind of a safety valve on top of the hotheads in the lower ranks.” — Abdi Ismail Samatar, Africa’s First Democrats, 1511

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to the broader literature on how intelligence services consistently misread coup risk, e.g., the US dismissal of signs before many takeovers. — connects to: US intelligence misjudged Barre as not coup-minded before the takeover — Abdi Ismail Samatar, Africa’s First Democrats, 1511; US intelligence misjudged Barre as unlikely to stage the 1969 coup
• yield-rescued: below the book’s yield-target cutoff, included anyway for connecting to: US intelligence misjudged Barre as not coup-minded before the takeover — Abdi Ismail Samatar, Africa’s First Democrats, 1511; US intelligence misjudged Barre as unlikely to stage the 1969 coup

Broader Connections

• US intelligence misjudged Barre as not coup-minded before the takeover #corroborates (0.97) — Abdi Ismail Samatar, Africa’s First Democrats, 1511
• US intelligence misjudged Barre as unlikely to stage the 1969 coup #corroborates (0.95)