Wartime exhaustion forces extremists to moderate or be replaced.

Evidence

In a final category, one individual reported that attempts to quit extremism only led him to a more extremist outfit. He noted that he disliked participation in a skinhead gang and so quit and tried to go to college. But he was still dressing and looking like a skinhead and was easily sighted by another skinhead gang near campus. It was this group that sought him out and ultimately recruited him into the NSM. And that participation in the NSM led to a more political and nationalistic kind of radicalization. — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America, 366 (#complicates, via linked claim)

Terrorists face the difficult task of calibrating the level of their violence so as not to alienate their sympathizers. This is not easy to do when terrorist activities raise moral qualms in partisans and can make their lives more miserable. The natural tendency in the face of failed attempts is to escalate the level of violence, which only makes it more socially alienating. However, a clever campaign in moral disengagement can get supporters to accept extreme terrorist acts as morally justified (Sarma, 2010). — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 2259 (#complicates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Religious polarization doubled as moderates left while extremists persisted. — Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone The Collapse and Revival…, 241; War-weary extremists who compromise become hated more than enemies — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 824; Attempting to quit extremism can itself escalate a person into a worse group — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America:…, 366 (+3 more)

Broader Connections

• Attempting to quit extremism can itself escalate a person into a worse group #complicates (0.82) — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America, 366
• Failed militant campaigns tend toward escalation that alienates sympathizers #complicates (0.74) — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 2259