Unemployment’s rate of change, not its level, signals societal threat

Evidence

Nevertheless, average levels of serious crimes were not significantly different between the two periods, and the unemployment rate was slightly (although not significantly) higher in 1983–1987. Note, however, that the unemployment rate had increased substantially throughout 1978–1982, rising from 5.8% in 1979 to 9.7% in 1982, and that whereas unemployment was high at the beginning of our low-threat period (9.6% in 1983), it fell to 7.5% the next year and to 6.2% by 1987. The average rate of increase of the unemployment rate was significantly higher in the high-threat period (8.9% in 1978– 1982 vs. −8.2% in 1983–1987), t(8)=1.87, p<.05, one-tailed. Thus, the changes in the unemployment rate do fit our characterization of threat levels in the two periods. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 751

Categorization

• QUESTION: This suggests threat perception tracks the slope of economic hardship (deterioration/improvement) rather than its absolute level — worth checking whether public mood research confirms that direction-of-change framing shapes anxiety more than current levels.
• XREF: connects to: The speed of automation-driven job loss, not the scale, is historically unprecedented and unpredicted — Mark Fisher (edited by Darren Ambrose), K-Punk: The Collected and Unpublished…, 1992