Ukraine’s cleaved, semi-united status is Russia’s most likely near-term outcome

Evidence

The third and more likely scenario is that Ukraine will remain united, remain cleft, remain independent, and generally cooperate closely with Russia. Once the transition questions concerning nuclear weapons and military forces are resolved, the most serious longer term issues will be economic, the resolution of which will be facilitated by a partially shared culture and close personal ties. The Russian-Ukrainian relationship is to eastern Europe, John Morrison has pointed out, what the Franco-German relationship is to western Europe. Just as the latter provides the core of the European Union, the former is the core essential to unity in the Orthodox world. — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 454

Categorization

• SEED: The Franco-German / Russian-Ukrainian parallel as twin cores of two civilizational blocs is a sharp structural comparison worth an essay or section.