Thinking hard about an event inflates its perceived likelihood of occurring
Evidence
Furthermore, the individual is not an isolated processing unit unaffected by the ways in which certain items of information are emphasized or denied in any particular society. For example, it has been shown that if someone is given cause to think in detail about some event or situation, then he or she will assign a much higher subjective probability to that event occurring or situation arising (Ross et al. 1977). — Diego Gambetta, Trust - Making and Breaking Cooperative…, 675
Categorization
Category: Causal Relationships
- QUESTION: The Ross et al. 1977 effect — does it generalize beyond probability estimates to trust judgments? Worth chasing the original study.