The random-walk hypothesis coexisted with contrary evidence from its earliest formulations.

Evidence

There is a sense in which the efficient-market hypothesis and its predecessor, the random-walk hypothesis, always co-existed with contrary evidence. Holbrook Working, for example, believed it was possible to find at least some structure in the apparently random fluctuations of stock prices (Working 1958). So did another early formulator of the random-walk hypothesis: Alfred Cowles III, founder (and funder) of the Cowles Commission. — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 416

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Random-walk ideas of security prices predate the 1950s by a century — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 257; A true but incomplete theory can make its holder misread anomalies; Independent researchers independently rediscovered random-walk stock price models — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 290 (+1 more)

Broader Connections

• A true but incomplete theory can make its holder misread anomalies #expands (0.85)
• Independent researchers independently rediscovered random-walk stock price models #exemplifies (0.85) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 290
• The Efficient Market Hypothesis resists empirical falsification through the protective shield of auxiliary hypotheses #qualifies (0.80) — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 753