The NYPD’s predictability claim rests on only ten case studies.

Evidence

While the report states that there is no profile for a potential terrorist, the thrust of its analysis is precisely about creating such a profile and predicting the activity of potential terrorists. Based on data from a grand total of ten cases, the report states that there is “remarkable consistency in the behaviors and trajectory of each of the plots across the stages” and that “this consistency provides a tool for predictability.” Theories like this are used to justify the kind of human mapping program discussed earlier, where infiltrators were sent to bookstores, community centers, mosques, and other “hot spots” where Muslim citizens and immigrants spend their time. — Deepa Kumar, Islamophobia and the Politics of Empire, 593

Categorization

• QUESTION: Worth investigating whether the ten-case sample has been scrutinized or debunked since; small-N inference masquerading as a predictive tool.