The IMF’s 2011-12 papers refuted the expansionary austerity hypothesis by name

Evidence

Two IMF papers that appeared in July 2011 and July 2012 effectively brought Alesina’s hour to a close. … Nicoletta Battini et al.’s “Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan”—an examination of the big cases that matter—pretty much pulls any remaining theoretical and empirical supports out from under the expansionary austerity case. … They argue, inter alia, that consolidating in a downturn is twice as risky as doing it in an upturn; that smooth and gradual consolidations always work better than strong and abrupt ones; that frontloaded contractions are more contractionary and worsen the debt-to-GDP load, and that cutting taxes is less contractionary than cutting transfers, especially when it’s done gradually. — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 582

Categorization

• XREF: Directly connects to Mattei and the broader austerity literature the reader is building a foundation for — this is the empirical demolition of Alesina-Reinhart-Rogoff. — connects to: The Australian case for expansionary austerity rests on fabricated facts. — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 568; Expansionary fiscal contraction theory emerged despite contradictory IMF field evidence — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 446; Austerity persists as an ideology that resists empirical refutation — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 613 (+4 more)

Broader Connections

• Expansionary fiscal contraction theory emerged despite contradictory IMF field evidence #corroborates (0.85) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 446
• Austerity persists as an ideology that resists empirical refutation #qualifies (0.75) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 613
• Expansionary austerity cases depend on conditions absent in the Eurozone #qualifies (0.72) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 483
• Austerity policy triumphed despite its authors conceding weak empirical evidence #corroborates (0.72) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 468