The Eurabia scenario is taken seriously by experienced policymakers and analysts.

Evidence

In June of 2007, Fred C. Ilde, who was Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in the Reagan Administration, said, “Islamization in Europe would be an immense disaster for the Atlantic alliance and NAT0.” To note such remarks is not to doubt the evaluation that an Islamic Europe would have profound implications for U.S.-European relations. It seems incontestable that it would. The point instead is to note that the proposition that Europe could become lslamized is taken seriously amongst intelligent and experienced policy makers and analysts. It is far from a fringe view. — Michael A. Reynolds and Thomas D. Grant, The Future of Europe and Its Muslims, 147

Categorization

• XREF: Ties to the reader’s notes on how security framings get legitimated by credentialed insiders, as in Base Nation and The New Crusades.
• SEED: An angle on how a speculative scenario acquires credibility simply by being repeated by senior officials, regardless of evidence.