Surrendered Haitian leaders’ submission was a tactical cease-fire awaiting disease season

Evidence

Leclerc also felt that Louverture’s very presence in the colony was a threat. In this belief he was not alone. “Toussaint and the other leaders only appear to have surrendered,” wrote one French officer, “and only sought to give their troops an entry into your ranks so that they can surprise you at the first appropriate moment.” According to Lacroix, the “spirit” among the cultivators was also still rebellious, and they said that their “submission” was in fact only a cease-fire until the month of August, when many had predicted that the onset of disease would lead to the “annihilation of the entire European army sent to Saint-Domingue.” — Dubois, Laurent, Avengers of the New World_ The Story of…, 978

Categorization

• QUESTION: How did Saint-Domingue populations learn to predict the disease season so precisely — and how did this knowledge become strategic rather than merely fatalistic?