Roger Bacon predicted Islam’s end within thirty years using apocalyptic math

Evidence

For Bacon, the current situation was dire: a divided, apathetic, unphilosophical Christendom was surrounded by numerous infidel peoples, against which it sent ineffectual crusading armies and poorly prepared missionaries. Yet there was cause for hope: the predictions of the Apocalypse, con- firmed by the scientific calculations of Saracen astrologers and by the Mongol sack of Baghdad, showed that Islam had at most thirty years ahead of it. The need to educate Franciscan missionaries in Bacon’s intellectual system was urgent, but the hopes for success were good. — John V. Tolan, Saracens, 1162

Categorization

Category: Factual Claims

• SEED: An article angle: medieval intellectuals used ‘scientific’ astrology to date the apocalypse — prophecy as quantitative prediction, the medieval version of predictive modeling.
• XREF: Connects to themes of apocalyptic calculation and self-defeating prophecy; also to how the Mongol sack of Baghdad functioned as an eschatological data point.

Related

• Thirteenth-century scholars calculated Islam’s imminent demise from astrology and the Mongol sack of Baghdad (similarity 0.91)
• Thirteenth-century Christian missionaries predicted Islam’s imminent demise using fabricated Muslim sources. (similarity 0.81)
• Medieval Christian polemicists claimed Muslim sources predicted Islam’s imminent defeat (similarity 0.79)
• Apocalyptic Christian writers forecast a fixed number of years for Muslim rule (similarity 0.79)
• Medieval Christians believed prophesied rise of Islam predicted its imminent end (similarity 0.78)