Revolution becomes likely when prolonged improvement is abruptly reversed

Evidence

The theory is that revolution is likely when periods of prolonged improvement, the historical pattern most likely to raise expectations, are interrupted by abrupt reversals; then frustrations due to unrequited expectations become intolerable. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4352

Categorization

• DEFINE: Core statement of Davies’s J-curve theory of revolution — expectations raised by sustained improvement become intolerable frustrations when reversed.
• XREF: Connects to relative deprivation theory in political psychology and to classic revolutionary-moment literature (e.g., Tocqueville on France, de Tocqueville’s ‘most dangerous moment’). — connects to: Cultural revolution faces the paradox that readiness makes revolution unnecessary — Fredric Jameson, Marxism and Form, 189; Rapid opportunity shifts ignite spirals of contention reaching revolutionary extremes — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 280; Revolution requires an accumulating visible train of abuses — John Locke, Second Treatise of Government, 282