Rational inference from others’ actions alone can push a whole group wrong

Evidence

Information cascades are not the same as conformity bias; the individuals in the stock-trading case are not trying to fit in with the group. They are making rational decisions on the basis of the evidence available to them, which includes both their own private information and the actions of others. We do not actually think information cascading explains the behaviors of Trump supporters, or of the doctors who ignored Semmelweis. The point is simply that even in a case where conforming might seem like a generally good thing—because others might have information we lack—the whole group can end up behaving in a highly irrational way when our actions or statements of belief come under social influence. — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age, 286

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Individually rational agents can form collectively irrational groups — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age: How False…, 50; Training doctors caused higher maternal death rates than midwives in Vienna 1846 — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age: How False…, 268; Evidence sharing alone drives groups toward uniform belief without conformity psychology — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age: How False…, 208 (+4 more)

Broader Connections

• Recursive misperception of others’ intentions can erase objective truth from a social situation #expands (0.90) — Diego Gambetta, Trust - Making and Breaking Cooperative…, 113
• Source-trusting alone can split a community into stable opposing epistemic camps #corroborates (0.72) — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age, 249