Predicting later opinions requires no more recent data than earlier ones

Evidence

Far more fascinating, however, is another property that emerges. Quite generally, we can predict t3 issue positions of individuals fully as well from a knowledge of their t1 positions alone as we can from a knowledge of their t2 positions alone. In other words, the turnover correlations between different time points for these issues tend to fit the scheme shown in Figure 10.2. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 1947

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to research on the nature of attitude stability and whether survey responses are closer to random noise than stable traits — relevant to the Zaller Converse literature.