Popular uprisings succeed when mass discontent merges with elite conspiratorial planning.

Evidence

N.B. the example of the Sicilian Vespers, 257 and the arguments among historians about whether this was a spontaneous movement or one planned in advance. In my view the two elements were combined in the case of the Vespers. On the one hand, a spontaneous rising of the Sicilian people against their Provencal rulers which spread so rapidly that it gave the impression of simultaneity and hence of preconcertation; this rising was the result of an oppression which had become intolerable throughout the national territory. On the other hand, there was the conscious element, of varying importance and effectiveness, and the success of Giovanni da Procida’s plot with the Aragonese. — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 808 (#exemplifies, via linked claim)

Neglecting, or worse still despising, so-called “spontaneous” movements, i.e. failing to give them a conscious leadership or to raise them to a higher plane by inserting them into politics, may often have extremely serious consequences. It is almost always the case that a “spontaneous” movement of the subaltern classes is accompanied by a reactionary movement of the right-wing of the dominant class, for concomitant reasons. An economic crisis, for instance, engenders on the one hand discontent among the subaltern classes and spontaneous mass movements, and on the other conspiracies among the reactionary groups, who take advantage of the objective weakening of the government in order to attempt coups d’etat . Among the effective causes of the coups must be included the failure of the responsible groups to give any conscious leadership to the spontaneous revolts or to make them into a positive political factor. — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 808 (#qualifies, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Popular uprisings succeed only when elite allies coordinate with mass discontent; Unled spontaneous revolts invite reactionary counter-movements and coups — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 808; Spontaneous mass uprising and elite conspiracy combined in the Sicilian Vespers — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 808

Broader Connections

• Popular uprisings succeed only when elite allies coordinate with mass discontent #corroborates (0.95)
• Spontaneous mass uprising and elite conspiracy combined in the Sicilian Vespers #exemplifies (0.95) — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 808
• Unled spontaneous revolts invite reactionary counter-movements and coups #qualifies (0.85) — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 808