Perceived scientific consensus is a central gateway to related climate beliefs.

Evidence

The Gateway Belief Model (GBM) is a theory of attitude change my colleagues and I developed that is a formalization of this finding. As part of this theory, perceived scientific agreement (consensus) acts as a gateway because, when you visualize the mental network of beliefs that people hold about an issue, perceived consensus occupies a central position insofar as it connects to or bridges other important beliefs. In our studies, we find that when you communicate the scientific consensus to people on, for example, climate change, Covid-19, or the safety of vaccinations, this increases our perception of scientific agreement (stage 1). In turn, people’s perception of scientific agreement is strongly related to other key attitudes and feelings that people hold, such as whether they believe climate change is happening, is human-caused, and how much we should worry about the issue. This in turn predicts the degree to which people will support public action on contested issues (stage 2). — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof, 665

Categorization

• DEFINE: Formalizes the Gateway Belief Model that grounds the empirical chapters.
• XREF: connects to: Communicating scientific consensus reduces climate polarization across the spectrum — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 142; Partisan identity now drives belief in human-caused global warming — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement: How People Do Harm…, 2762; Perceived social consensus licenses people to express their biases (+5 more)

Broader Connections

• IPCC consensus since 2007 attributes significant global warming to human greenhouse gas emissions #exemplifies (0.85)
• Perceived social consensus licenses people to express their biases #expands (0.80)
• Perceived consensus legitimizes people’s expression of prejudice #expands (0.78) — John F. Dovidio, Peter Glick, Laurie A. Rudman, On the Nature of Prejudice, 1913
• Partisan identity now drives belief in human-caused global warming #complicates (0.72) — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 2762
• Science’s trustworthiness rests on being intersubjective and collective #corroborates (0.72) — Holm Gero Hümmler, Ulrike Schiesser, Fact and Prejudice, 748
• Evidence sharing alone drives groups toward uniform belief without conformity psychology #contradicts (0.72) — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age, 208