People see coherent Machiavellian planning where states are actually blundering.

Evidence

If the belief in conspiracies is common, the resistance to accepting a large role for chance is almost universal. People see order even in random data. They seek parsimony even when it is not present. Thus, they are slow to explain the policies of states in terms of a multiplicity of bureaucratic factors or a multiplicity of changing motives; other states are seen as coordinated and Machiavellian when in fact they may be blundering and incoherent (Jervis, 1976). — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 2558

Categorization

• SEED: Angle: why foreign-policy analysis systematically over-attributes coherence to rival governments — a piece on cognitive bias in international relations.
• XREF: Resonates with the reader’s work on communication/media culture and how narratives impose order on messy events.