People overweight small probabilities and underweight moderate and high ones
Evidence
- Low probabilities are overweighted, giving rise to some risk seeking in the domain of gains. For example, many people prefer one chance in a thousand to win
3,000 over3 for sure. … 3. Although for low probabilities, π(p)>p, in general, π(p)+π(1−p)<1. Thus low probabilities are overweighted, moderate and high probabilities are underweighted, and the latter effect is more pronounced than the former. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 2493
Categorization
- DEFINE: Spells out the core weighting distortions of prospect theory — the subadditivity axiom π(p)+π(1−p)<1 in plain language.