Pascal’s Wager treats belief in God as a rational expected-value gamble

Evidence

Pascal assumed that either God does or does not exist and either you believe in God, or you do not believe. If you wager that God exists and you believe, then you will be rewarded with eternal life in heaven. If God exists and you do not believe, then there will be suffering and eternal damnation. If God does not exist and you still believe, then perhaps you’ve wasted some time; but if God doesn’t exist and you do not believe either, then nothing is lost anyway. So overall, the cost-benefit analysis clearly suggests that while little is lost by believing in God, there is everything to be gained. Or in Pascal’s own words: ‘If you gain, you gain all, if you lose, you lost nothing. Wager then, without hesitation that God is.’ — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof, 99

Categorization

• DEFINE: Concise exposition of Pascal’s Wager as an expected-value decision problem.
• XREF: connects to: Even a logically airtight Wager can serve as post-hoc rationalization of prior belief — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 100