Overseas base support rests on an unprovable appeasement counterfactual

Evidence

The major assumption underlying a belief in the value of overseas bases and foreign military presence is the idea that if France and Britain and the United States had aggressively confronted Hitler in the 1930s rather than pursuing a policy of “appeasement,” World War II could have been averted. Many treat this counterfactual scenario as the lesson of World War II. But given that history doesn’t allow for do-overs or scientific controls, there’s no way to prove conclusively whether that assumption is true or false. — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1041