Natural experimental conditions allow rigorous causal tests of media effects

Evidence

In order to test priming, we partitioned the Form A sample into two groups: the first was comprised of the respondents who happened to have been interviewed before the 25 November revelations (N=714); the second was made up of those who happened to have been interviewed afterward (N =349). Respondents interviewed on 25 November were excluded. Initial comparisons revealed that the pre-revelation and postrevelation groups were essentially indistinguishable across a variety of demographic and political comparisons, including education, race, age, gender, employment status, family income, partisanship, interest in politics, and ideological self-identification. This means that whatever differences between groups we might detect in public opinion toward President Reagan can reasonably be attributed to the Iran-Contra revelations. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 1583 (#expands, via linked claim)

The empirical support for priming is strong; but so far it comes entirely from experimental studies. While experiments have genuine advantages, they also suffer inescapable limitations. Dependable conclusions about priming—or anything else—are based most securely in corroboration across different methods. So a demonstration of priming in a natural and politically consequential setting, free of the limitations of the experimental laboratory, would considerably bolster confidence in the phenomenon. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 1577 (#complicates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Guaranteed prediction products require causal knowledge gained through experiments — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 931; Natural experiments use policy changes to produce quasi-random variation in data — Philip Mirowski & Dieter Plehwe (eds.), The Road from Mont Pèlerin: The Making…, 1936; Natural experiments always depend on prior political interventions — Philip Mirowski & Dieter Plehwe (eds.), The Road from Mont Pèlerin: The Making…, 1977 (+7 more)

Broader Connections

• Natural quasi-experiments can separate media event effects from preexisting differences #expands (0.92) — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 1583
• Media priming effects had only experimental support, not real-world confirmation #complicates (0.78) — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 1577