Most observed attitude instability is random noise, not real opinion change

Evidence

Once this possibility is set aside, however, there is only one other model involving a mixture of two types of process of change that fits the ob-served data. This model is somewhat surprising but not totally implausible. It posits a very sharp dichotomy within the population according to processes of change that are polar opposites. There is first a “hard core” of opinion on a given issue, which is well crystallized and perfectly stable over time. For the remainder of the population, response sequences over time are statistically random. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 1950

Categorization

• XREF: Resonates with the Converse ‘nonattitudes’ thesis in public opinion research, and with later work distinguishing real attitude change from survey measurement error.