Low primary turnout lets organized minorities defeat established incumbents

Evidence

The NRA mounts well-financed campaigns, both directly and through its affiliates, to increase its political clout in statehouses and Congress, not only in general elections but also in primary contests, in which candidates are selected. When in power, each of the two major political parties carves out districts with large majorities for its side to ensure victory. Incumbents either have no opponents or face only token challengers from the opposing political party. However, the battle for political control is fought even in safe districts in primary contests. Because of low voter turnout in primaries, a well-organized faction with an extremist agenda can defeat established incumbents. The NRA unseats even progun incumbents in primary contests, if these lawmakers do not fully hew to the NRA line. — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 1228

Categorization

• QUESTION: The mechanism — low turnout plus well-organized factions unseating incumbents — generalizes beyond gun politics; worth checking how widely documented this is across states.
• XREF: Connects to the general literature on political polarization and party primaries; also echoes Mancur Olson’s logic of collective action where small concentrated groups beat diffuse majorities. — connects to: A small motivated minority can sway narrow-margin elections with disinformation — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 219; New Right strategists openly sought lower voter turnout to increase their leverage — Katherine Stewart, The Power Worshippers: Inside the…, 238