Linear debt projections assume a future that other trends will upend

Evidence

25. For a typical example, see the two-page spread from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, “For a Stronger Economy, Deal with the Debt,” in Bloomberg Businessweek, August 27, 2012. It contains a linear projection out to 2040. By that time global oil supplies may have run out, and the last thing we may care about is sovereign debt. — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 685

Categorization

• QUESTION: Worth chasing the Peterson Foundation projection and how it ignores peak-oil and resource scarcity scenarios.
• XREF: connects to: Large debts shrink in real terms when growth outpaces the debt — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 52; Inflation erodes the real cost of fixed-interest debt; Austerity logic ignores that growth, not cuts, may resolve debt — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 53

Broader Connections

• Large debts shrink in real terms when growth outpaces the debt #qualifies (0.85) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 52
• Austerity logic ignores that growth, not cuts, may resolve debt #expands (0.85) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 53
• Inflation erodes the real cost of fixed-interest debt #exemplifies (0.80)