Less communication can yield truer scientific consensus (Zollman effect)

Evidence

Usually, when scientists behave rationally but gather uncertain data, sharing evidence helps the whole group get to the right belief, even persuading those who were initially skeptical. But sometimes this process backfires, and communication between scientists actually leads to a consensus around the false belief. Remember the Vegetable Lamb. Without communication among learned scholars, this bizarre belief would never have gone anywhere. The sharing of evidence (“I tasted its wondirfulle flesh!”) convinced many with correct beliefs that the wrong thing was true. … This trade-off, where connections propagate true beliefs but also open channels for the spread of misleading evidence, means that sometimes it is actually better for a group of scientists to communicate less, especially when they work on a hard problem. This phenomenon, in which scientists improve their beliefs by failing to communicate, is known as the “Zollman effect,” after Kevin Zollman, who discovered it. If everybody shares evidence, a chance string of bad data can persuade the entire group to abandon the correct theory. But in a group where not everyone listens to everyone else, pockets of scientists can be protected from misleading data and continue to gather evidence on the true belief that eventually persuades the rest of the community. — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age, 214

Categorization

• XREF: Reverberates against the chapter’s mercury-poisoning case where greater communication helped, and against modern concerns about breaking up knowledge monopolies and filter bubbles. — connects to: Public actions can snowball beliefs, overriding stronger private information — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age: How False…, 282; Polarization similarity hides distinct causes requiring opposite interventions — Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall, The Misinformation Age: How False…, 311; Communicating scientific consensus reduces climate polarization across the spectrum — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 142 (+2 more)

Broader Connections

• Communicating scientific consensus reduces climate polarization across the spectrum #contradicts (0.85) — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof, 142
• Unilateral, non-reciprocal communication can coordinate both parties’ expectations #expands (0.75) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 201
• Increased contact builds mutual belief frameworks that reduce miscommunication and exploitation #complicates (0.72) — Diego Gambetta, Trust - Making and Breaking Cooperative…, 703