Kin-country influence over co-ethnics is powerful but cannot guarantee compliance

Evidence

As a kin country which the Serbs could trust, Russia was also at times able to impose constraints on the Serbs and pressure them to accept compromises they would otherwise reject. In 1995, for instance, Russia along with Greece interceded with the Bosnian Serbs to secure the release of Dutch peacekeepers they held hostage. On occasion, however, the Bosnian Serbs reneged on agreements they had made under Russian pressure and thereby embarrassed Russia for not being able to deliver its kin. In April 1994, for example, Russia secured agreement from the Bosnian Serbs to end their attack on the Gorazde, but the Serbs then broke the agreement. The Russians were furious: the Bosnian Serbs have “become mad on war,” declared one Russian diplomat, Yeltsin insisted that “Serbian leadership must fulfill the obligation it has given to Russia,” and Russia withdrew its objections to NATO air strikes. — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 818

Categorization

• DEEPTHINKING: The double edge of kin-state leverage — trust gives influence, but that influence is hostage to co-ethnics’ own decisions, and its failure destroys the kin-state’s own credibility and standing.
• CANDY: Snappy point: even Russia couldn’t control the Serbs — the kin relationship cuts both ways.