Judges cannot reliably predict dangerousness, causing both over- and under-detention.

Evidence

Critics insist there is no reliable basis for predicting criminal behavior and that some offenders will be unnecessarily confined awaiting trial while dangerous ones will be released. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1699

Categorization

• SEED: The actuarial-prediction failure is a strong essay angle: courts making liberty decisions on tools that demonstrably don’t work.
• XREF: connects to: Congress authorized preventive detention of defendants when judges cannot assure community safety. — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 1699; Random emotional shocks to judges produce arbitrary punishment decisions. — Joseph Avery, Jim Sidanius, Joel Cooper, Gregory Davis, Amanda N., Bias in the Law: A Definitive Look at…, 782

Broader Connections

• Random emotional shocks to judges produce arbitrary punishment decisions. #complicates (0.85) — Joseph Avery, Jim Sidanius, Joel Cooper, Gregory Davis, Amanda N., Bias in the Law, 782