Japan faces an unresolved strategic trilemma between China, US, and self-defense.

Evidence

The rise of China will pose a major challenge to Japan, and the Japanese will be deeply divided as to which strategy Japan should pursue. Should it attempt to accommodate China, perhaps with some trade-off acknowledging China’s political-military dominance in return for recognition of Japan’s primacy in economic matters? Should it attempt to give new meaning and vigor to the U.S.-Japanese alliance as the core of a coalition to balance and contain China? Should it attempt to develop its own military power to defend its interests against any Chinese incursions? Japan will probably avoid as long as it can any clear-cut answer to these questions. — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 644

Categorization

• QUESTION: Worth checking which way Japan actually went in the decades since — the accommodation-versus-containment question remains live today.