Italy’s aging population means over a third will be over 65 by 2035

Evidence

As in the case of Portugal, what wasn’t an issue in 2000 suddenly became one in 2010 when the markets noticed three things: Italy does indeed have the third-biggest bond market in the world; its growth rate is terrible, so its ability to pay back or even roll over its debt if interest rates go up is extremely constrained; and, its demographics are even worse than Portugal’s. While Italy is ranked 158th out of 230 countries in population growth, a marginal improvement over Portugal, it is ranked 207th in births. The median age of the population is 43.5, and 20 percent of the country is already over sixty-five years old. Given that one of the few truly linear events in life is death (there are no 200-year-old people out there), over one-third of Italy’s population will be over sixty-five by 2035. — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 197

Categorization

• XREF: Demographic debt burden underpinning is reflected in Mattei’s treatment of how austerity shifts costs onto future generations. — connects to: Developed countries now hold populations near replacement levels — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement: How People Do Harm…, 2960
• CANDY: ‘One of the few truly linear events in life is death’ — a memorable framing for elevator conversation about pension crises.

Broader Connections

• Developed countries now hold populations near replacement levels #expands (0.75) — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 2960