Isaac Ehrlich’s econometric model claimed each execution spares several lives.

Evidence

Prior to the 1970s, research on the deterrent effect of the death penalty was conducted mainly by behavioral scientists and criminologists. More recently, empirical arguments regarding the death penalty have centered mainly on the econometric model of deterrent effects. In the inaugural application of this method, the economist Isaac Ehrlich (1975) studied murder rates as a function of the probability of being caught, convicted, and executed; income and employment; and expenditures in law enforcement. He concluded from his economic analysis that each execution spares several lives. However, his research came under heavy fire on conceptual and methodological grounds (Fox & Radelet, 1989). — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 1950

Categorization

• XREF: Classic example of a contested quantitative finding that later reanalysis undermined; connects to general skepticism of single high-profile statistical studies.