Germany’s 2008-09 recession was driven almost entirely by collapsing exports

Evidence

Those fears seemed justified when, in the fourth quarter of 2008, German exports contributed 8.1 percent of an overall 9.4 percent annualized decline in GDP. By mid-2009, the Bundesbank was forecasting a 6 percent GDP contraction by the end of the year. Surprisingly robust demand in Asia, however, made up for declines in the Euro Area. German exports, however, rapidly rebounded. Industrial orders rose throughout 2009, and by August investor confidence had reached its highest point in three years. Germany, it seemed, had dodged the financial bullets emanating from the United States. — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 156

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to the reader’s foundational austerity corpus via Mattei — Germany’s export-driven model and its post-2010 austerity posture toward southern Europe. — connects to: Germany’s post-2009 worry was export demand, not bank losses; Portugal’s export decline produced slow growth and heavy debt before 2008 — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 193; German export-led growth enabled absorbing East Germany and weathering 2009. — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 165 (+1 more)

Broader Connections

• German export-led growth enabled absorbing East Germany and weathering 2009. #qualifies (0.78) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 165