Futurist prophecy can never be falsified by events
Evidence
Unlike the mere revisionist or clairvoyant, the futurist has the advantage that the future can always be rewritten, for there is no record to compare it with, no systematic veriļ¬cation of prophecy. The futurist can keep extending the day of consummation or rely on the forgetfulness of the public when the appointed but unfulļ¬lled day arrives. ā James W. Carey, Communication as Culture- Essays onā¦, 748
Categorization
- QUESTION: Worth chasing: does this unfalsifiability argument generalize to modern AI-forecasting and longtermist prediction regimes?
- corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim ā James W. Carey, Communication as Culture- Essays onā¦, 748
- XREF: connects to: Conspiracy functions as an alternative epistemology when interpretation has no ground truth ā , The Braided Reading EPUB: 5-Yearā¦, 105; Prediction of historical events is a practical act, not a scientific act of knowledge.; The future is unknowable by definition, so prediction is only practical action.
Related
- Prediction of historical events is a practical act, not a scientific act of knowledge. (similarity 0.91)
- The future is unknowable by definition, so prediction is only practical action. (similarity 0.89)
- Failed predictions merely trigger appeals to yet another new future. (similarity 0.81)
- Past predictions have foreclosed genuinely open futures (similarity 0.79)
Broader Connections
- Conspiracy functions as an alternative epistemology when interpretation has no ground truth
#complicates(0.40) ā , The Braided Reading EPUB, 105