Failed negotiations might have triggered internal war between insurgents and their leaders

Evidence

Since the “self-determination” speech of September 1959, endeavours towards negotiating a cease-fire had jolted along in their usual fruitless and frustrating way, with neither side seemingly able to find a formula for beginning talks that would satisfy promises extracted for internal consumption. (And how often in the history of war does the killing of young men and civilians continue for no better reason than this failure to discover just such a face-saving formula?) The problems of each side ran curiously parallel; no sooner had a peaceful-sounding overture been made than pressure from the protagonists of “no compromise” would force the respective leader to counterpoint with harsh and intransigent noises towards the other side, which in turn would engender more mistrustful reservations. — Horne, Alistair, A Savage War of Peace- Algeria 1954-1962, 1165 (#expands, via linked claim)

Thus, while soldiers and civilians accused of complicity in the abortive April coup were being tried in Mogadishu in August 1978, there were widespread reports that the Majerteyn clan was holding hostages belonging to the Marehan clan of the President. The Head of State, whose most recent appointments and promotions suggested an increasingly defensive dependence on his own clansmen, was also said to be negotiating clandestinely with Majerteyn clan leaders in an effort to avert a situation which, some local Somali commentators claimed, threatened to lead to widespread tribal war. Perhaps this was an exaggerated view. Certainly, there was much more openly voiced criticism of Siyad’s government in Mogadishu in the summer of 1978 than there had been four years previously, before the 1975 drought and 1977 Ogaden War. This seemed less indicative of a deliberate relaxation of previous security measures, although there may have been an element of this, than of an increasing lack of firm central control. Talk of the need for a change of government was, if anything, more rather than less insistent following the unsuccessful Majerteyn attempt to overthrow the regime. — I.M. Lewis, I. M. Lewis, A Modern History of the Somali_ Nation…, 587 (#exemplifies, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Insurgent leaders offered to trade surrender for elite freedoms and mass amnesty; Failed negotiations drove the insurgents back to renewed military assault; Peace talks failed because each leader’s internal hawks countered every conciliatory overture — Horne, Alistair, A Savage War of Peace- Algeria 1954-1962, 1165 (+2 more)

Related

• Peace talks failed because each leader’s internal hawks countered every conciliatory overture (similarity 0.84)
• Clan conflict between Majerteyn and Marehan escalated after the failed coup. (similarity 0.80)
• Mirrored hard-liner pressure on both sides doomed every peace overture. (similarity 0.78)

Broader Connections

• Peace talks failed because each leader’s internal hawks countered every conciliatory overture #expands (0.80) — Horne, Alistair, A Savage War of Peace- Algeria 1954-1962, 1165
• Internal clan divisions fatally undermined the Western Somali liberation struggle #corroborates (0.60)
• Clan conflict between Majerteyn and Marehan escalated after the failed coup. #exemplifies (0.50) — I.M. Lewis, I. M. Lewis, A Modern History of the Somali_ Nation…, 587