Exhaustion-driven truces are self-limiting and war resumes when strength returns

Evidence

Producing even a temporary halt in a fault line war usually depends on two developments. The first is exhaustion of the primary participants. At some point when the casualties have mounted into tens of thousands, refugees into the hundreds of thousands, and cities—Beirut, Grozny, Vukovar—reduced to rubble, people cry “madness, madness, enough is enough,” the radicals on both sides are no longer able to mobilize popular fury, negotiations which have sputtered along unproductively for years come to life, and moderates reassert themselves and reach some sort of agreement for a halt to the carnage. … Such halts, however, are self-limiting. They enable both sides to rest and replenish their resources. Then when one side sees the opportunity for gain, the war is renewed. — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 802

Categorization

• XREF: The ‘war resumes when one side sees opportunity for gain’ logic parallels the repeated-game equilibria in the law-merchant literature previously read. — connects to: War serves nationalist ends even when unwinnable — Neil DeVotta, Sinhalese Buddhist Nationalist…, 269