Evenly matched rival states with WMDs pose civilization-scale escalation risk

Evidence

On a beach, if two midsized crabs launch into full battle it’s not likely to matter much for everybody else. But we’re not on that beach. Weapons of mass destruction are cheap enough now that most midsized states have them, or if they don’t yet, they soon will, and the destructive power of these weapons is so great that their use anywhere, even once, has the potential to unravel civilization on a global scale. If weapons of mass destruction are part of the equation, then we can’t let any confrontation escalate. Ever. But stopping them all is a tall order. A mere glance at our present political map shows hot spots with deadly potential—rivalries poised and ready to flare into full war. North Korea versus South Korea; India versus Pakistan; Israel versus Iran—all of these nations stand toe-to-toe with equally matched rivals, and all either already have or will soon have weapons of mass destruction. — Emlen, Douglas J, Animal Weapons_ The Evolution of Battle, 608

Categorization

• SEED: Article angle: applying the midsized-crab escalation model to current geopolitical flashpoints.
• XREF: Echoes great-power competition literature, e.g., Gray’s work on escalation dominance. — connects to: Bases surrounding a rival power provoke dangerous escalation; Interstate war escalates like a contest between rival crabs — Emlen, Douglas J, Animal Weapons_ The Evolution of Battle, 554; Leadership uncertainty magnified crisis risk during the 1983 nuclear standoff — Emlen, Douglas J, Animal Weapons_ The Evolution of Battle, 584 (+2 more)

Related

• Bases surrounding a rival power provoke dangerous escalation (similarity 0.86)
• Interstate war escalates like a contest between rival crabs (similarity 0.83)
• Proliferating nuclear weapons increase the risk of accidental world-ending war (similarity 0.82)
• States only fight rivals of matched size, preventing most conflicts (similarity 0.80)
• Modern nuclear and biological weapons are destructively unprecedented in history (similarity 0.78)

Broader Connections

• Proliferating nuclear weapons increase the risk of accidental world-ending war #expands (0.75) — Emlen, Douglas J, Animal Weapons_ The Evolution of Battle, 610
• Cheapening nuclear weapons is eroding the precondition for deterrence #corroborates (0.55)