Evangelical identity alone predicts almost no political behavior once Christian nationalism is accounted for

Evidence

Christian nationalism should not be thought of as synonymous with “evangelicalism” or even “white evangelicalism.” In fact, we intend for this clarification to undo a tremendous amount of confusion regarding American evangelicals and their political behavior —confusion that, we fear, polling results perpetuate. Stated simply: being an evangelical, or even a white evangelical as pollsters often define that category, tells us almost nothing about a person’s social attitudes or behavior once Christian nationalism has been considered. The two categories often overlap, to be sure. Roughly half of evangelicals (by some definitions) embrace Christian nationalism to some degree. And yet what is really influencing Americans’ behavior? Being affiliated with evangelicalism? Holding to traditional views about the Bible? Or advocating Christian nationalism? As it turns out, being an evangelical does not lead one to enthusiastically support border walls with Mexico; favoring Christian nationalism does. Being an evangelical does not seem to sour Americans’ attitudes toward stronger gun control legislation; endorsing Christian nationalism does. Being an evangelical was not an important predictor of which Americans voted for Donald Trump in 2016; supporting Christian nationalism was. — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 100

Categorization

• XREF: Directly relevant to vault — it corrects a common misreading that conservative evangelical politics equals Christian nationalism, sharpening Cooper’s account of who the coalition’s base actually is. — connects to: Political party alone does not explain Americans’ Christian nationalist views — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 171; Christian nationalism exerts unique unrecognized influence on American political division — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 13; Christian nationalism is not an exclusively evangelical ideology — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 213 (+5 more)
• QUESTION: Worth chasing the specific survey items distinguishing ‘evangelical’ from ‘Christian nationalist’ and how pollsters’ category definitions bias results.

Broader Connections

• Christian nationalism, not denomination, now predicts Americans’ politics #corroborates (0.90) — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 454
• White Christian nationalism explains seemingly contradictory Christian political behavior #corroborates (0.88) — Philip S. Gorski and Samuel L. Perry, The Flag and the Cross, 17
• Self-identified evangelicals are defined more by culture and politics than by theology #expands (0.85) — Kristin Kobes Du Mez, Jesus and John Wayne, 14
• Christian nationalism is not an exclusively evangelical ideology #qualifies (0.82) — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 213
• Political coalitions replaced shared theology in defining conservative evangelical identity #expands (0.80) — Kristin Kobes Du Mez, Jesus and John Wayne, 121